The Bitcoin price action has significantly increased due to a significant political event, the US presidential election. The US election impacted the BTC price, which gave it a strong rally for the subsequent year.
The Key takeaways from the Past US Elections
In 2012, the Bitcoin price was around $11 at the time of the election. It surged to 12,000% and peaked above $1,100 the following year.
Bitcoin was traded around $700 on election day for 2016, and it hit around $18,000, a 3,600% increase.
In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic caused Bitcoin to rally post-election to a peak of $69,000, an increase of 478% from the following year.
In March 2024, the Bitcoin Price hits a record high of above $73,000.
Predicted Bitcoin Rally in 2024
Bitcoin rallies follow diminishing returns in a post-election rally every year. The diminishing trend follows patterns of similar gains with small returns each year.
In 2012, it showed a percentage increase from 12,000% to a decrease of 3,600% in 2025 and 478% in 2020. The previous record shows 47.8%, taking Bitcoin to around $103,500 in Q4 of 2025.
The gradual record shows that another moderated rally is anticipated with a similar diminishing magnitude.
Short-Term and Long-Term Impact
The cryptocurrency market is expected to move upside down immediately after the election results. Short-term movements may react strongly to the election outcome, and sometimes, this will impact Bitcoin due to political uncertainty. Still, the long-term trend will be historically bullish for Bitcoin.
Historical patterns suggest that Bitcoin could touch the $100,000 mark by late 2025, given similar economic conditions and growing adoption.
Past cycles show that Bitcoin is undervalued after the historical halving event. The impact of the 2022 cycle low and the most recent Bitcoin halving offer the potential for a significant increase in the market upside.
Indicators of Potential Growth
The FTX collapse in 2022 caused the current low cycle, which is the most undervalued compared to past cycles.
Bitcoin halving in 2024 caused a meager increase, only 7%, making it the weakest post-halving performance.
Implications for Investors
The undervaluation compared to previous cycles, combined with the halving supply shock, suggests that Bitcoin could be primed for a strong rally. Although past cycles’ massive returns may be hard to replicate, a meaningful price surge is still possible, driven by the following:
Supply Scarcity: With less Bitcoin entering the market, the reduced supply may intensify demand, especially as broader adoption and regulatory clarity increase.
Undervalued Status: Investors looking at historical trends may see this undervaluation as an entry opportunity, potentially driving a cycle of increased buying pressure.
As market participants wait for post-election and macroeconomic clarity, Bitcoin’s undervalued position presents a potential for considerable upside, mainly if it follows the historical post-election rally pattern. This combination of factors could bring Bitcoin closer to $100,000 or higher by late 2025, even amid diminishing returns.
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